Monday, April 5, 2010

Paid to be there? Red sympathy wanes...

Admittedly, i was sympathetic to the Red Shirts in Bangkok when they first set up camp around Democracy monument. After all, the current PM (Abhisit) was selected by a government that staged a military coup (which cost lives) to oust the former PM (Thaksin) in 2006.

On the one hand, the call for a free election seems simple enough. Sure, why not? Seems that 4 years is enough time for an interim government to organize a new election. But, or course, things aren't that simple.

Thaksin was a telecom mogul before becoming PM, and while in power, his policies encouraged the growth (through programs and funding) of new business and innovation, including the renewable energy sector. He also made healthcare universally available for the poor (40 baht flat fee - just over $1) - a program that i've been told continues today.

But opponents say thaksin conveniently benefitted from his pro-business policies, going as far as to say that he purposefully set up policies that would make him richer. I suppose one would have to dig a little deeper into the exact policies, analyzing the proportion of them that benefitted him...

Officially, he was "caught in the act" when he sold majority shares his telecom company for US$60 million to Temasek, Singapore's telecom. The idea that a foreigner now owned the majority of thailand's biggest telecom company outraged many nationals (i don't see a problem in it myself, but i can see why others do).

One way or another, the claim is that he did not pay money he owed on this sale. From what i understand, this is what got him ousted from being prime minister...and his refusal to pay (or go to jail), is what got him exiled. His logic for refusing to pay might be based on the "pro-business policies" that his government instated, many of which were reversed when he was exiled (which had a significant impact on legitimate businesses who were thriving from those policies). Anyway, a month ago, it was ruled that Thaksin owes US$20 million.

There's more than one claim (rumor?) of corruption surrounding Thaksin. It is not unusual to hear thatThaksin "stole money from the government". Whether this refers to the taxes avoided, or different instances, is another mission...

What does seem evident is that Thaksin had the money to pay people off to get what he wanted, and had no qualms about doing so - some might tell you that it's par for the course when doing business in thailand. While this might be acceptable in business, it's a little less so in politics.

Bluntly put, buying votes sort of defeats the whole "vote for who you believe in" idea. Some say that votes were bought from the start - Thaksin went out of his way to court people from all over Thailand's countryside in a way that was unusual for most candidates...and his efforts (monetary or otherwise) were rewarded with instant popularity. Hey, in the US, we get tax cuts, rebates, and govt cheese - and whoever gives out the most wins OUR loyalty...

But I think Thaksin is starting to lose sight of things. I mean, first off, why not pay what he owes and be done with the whole mess. In addition, i find it disturbing to hear (more than once!) that the demonstrators are being paid 500 Baht a day to be there...and they get a free trip into Bangkok - certainly, this is more pay than many would be earning otherwise.

But seriously, Mr. Thaksin, when do you STOP paying to have friends? (i mean, at this point, he's GOT to have spent more than $20 million...)

Sadly, Abhisit is an Oxford-educated man who was actually selected from the Democratic Party... and he might not have been elected by the people (ahem, bought votes sort of nullifies the whole fair/democratic option) - BUT he was elected by representatives of the people in the goverment - the equivalent of "electoral" votes...

My point being, Abhisit is doing at least as much for the people as Thaksin did... which makes me wonder what Thaksin really cares about more - the people, or his own power? The demonstrators feel like they're part of a fight for freedom - because that's what it looks like. But really, that seems less and less what is at stake here...

So what is going on now...
The "peaceful demonstrations" have been allowed to continue for nearly a month now, and the military presence has shown remarkable restraint. But it's getting to the point where patience is wearing thin. Someone tried to bomb the Bangkok Bank headquarters (2 blocks from me) a week or so ago - without much fanfare, there are now more cops, a checkpoint on Silom Rd (both ways), more railings that make it harder to walk on the sidewalks and harder to get too close/into buildings.

Sukhumvit is worse (business district + many more foreigners) - Red Shirts will drive down the street for hours (they loop around the blocks continually) making all kinds of racket...need i mention that their presence by Central World made world headlines by shutting the whole place down...as the tension builds (and whiskey definitely plays a role here), less people are willing to go anywhere near the commotion...

Today (Monday) - Red Shirts actually managed to get into the government building (in chaeng wattana) and cause enough disruption, that they actually closed all the offices (except Immigration, which willingly stayed open to help those in immediate need).

Seems to me that for all his "pro-business policies", Thaksin pretty much threw them under the bus in exchange for his precious popular support... these demonstations are hurting businesses, leaving them little choice but to pressure the government to resolve the situation.

Maybe Thaksin hopes that this will work in his favor, but i think his plan is backfiring. He's causing a lot of trouble, and i don't think Thais appreciate this kind of drama (it doesn't make them look good) ...

So we shall see...this week, tensions are high, but next week is Songkran - kind of like easter - the whole country basically goes on vacation... so bangkok empties out a little, people go home to be with their families... maybe the demonstrators will be tired of the whole thing and go home, letting everything just be...